Wednesday, December 8, 2010

Variable Rate Update Dec 8th

Variable Rate Update - December 8, 2010

All variable rate mortgages are affected by changes in monetary policy as dictated by the Bank of Canada. Generally, when the Bank of Canada (BOC) decides to move its “overnight lending rate”, chartered banks and other financial institutions react by moving their prime rate accordingly. I prepared the following summary to help you track the market:


What Happened?

As expected, The Bank of Canada announced this morning that it will leave its overnight interest
rate unchanged at 1%. It also signaled that any future changes to their rate will be carefully considered as threats to the global economy have increased. Following this decision, banks and other lenders are expected to leave their prime rate at 3%.


How Does This Affect You?

Assuming you were comfortable with being in a variable rate yesterday, today’s decision should give you even more reassurance that this is a good place to be in the short-medium term. While fixed rates have inched up over the last month, there is no apparent reason to lock-in immediately. That said, for those concerned about rising rates, a “no commitment” rate hold might be worth securing (see below).

Today’s Average Variable Rate Mortgage: Prime less 0.70% (currently equal to 2.30%)

Variable rate discounts (that is, the reduction below prime) seem to have leveled off after a year of large decreases. If you’ve entered into a variable rate term over the last couple of years, it may be worth switching into a new variable mortgage with a better discount off prime. Figuring this out involves a very straightforward calculation that I’d be happy to assist you with.

Today’s Best “No Commitment” 120 Day Rate Hold: 5 Year Fixed @ 3.79% (Other terms available on request).

Worried about missing out on fixed rates while they’re low? Securing this rate for the next 4 months is as easy as letting me know you’d like to. No obligation, no application, and no credit check necessary.


Outlook and Opinion:
Canada seems to be reluctantly married to low rates over the long term and the typical reasons to raise rates (to calm inflation, to cool off the economy, to keep up with other central banks) appear to be an afterthought at the moment. As long as the Canadian and American Dollar remain close to par, the Bank of Canada will have a very hard time justifying further rate increases. This is because a high Canadian Dollar acts as a drag on the economy while at the same time reduces inflation by lowering the cost of our imports. Today’s rate decision had very little effect on the bond market, signaling that the experts believe low rates are here to stay.
Providing you have risk tolerance and flexibility in your budget to withstand higher payments over time, variable rates will likely provide a larger interest savings over the next five years.

The next Bank of Canada meeting and decision date on rates is January 18th, 2011.

Thursday, November 25, 2010

Strategies for Paying Down your Mortgage

I know its a little early for New Years resolutions but when it comes to saving thousands in interest its always a good time!!


Strategies for Paying Down your Mortgage

Set a Goal – We have all heard the saying "failing to plan is a plan to fail" so you need to at least think about what you are trying to achieve and take small steps towards that goal. For instance, decide you want to pay an extra $10,000 this year towards your mortgage, then work back and see what you need to do monthly or weekly to achieve your goal.

Establish Savings Habits – It’s pretty difficult to aggressively pay down the mortgage without establishing proper saving habits. Having the ability to generate savings brings a lot of freedom and can ultimately lead to paying off the mortgage faster.

Accelerated Bi-weekly Payments – This is a common strategy that works! By simply paying the mortgage during bi-weekly pay periods (instead of monthly) can result in an extra payment by the end of the year, which ultimately means less interest. This strategy alone can reduce the mortgage amortization by 3-4 years.

Topped up Payments – I like the strategy of topping up mortgage payments as it is forced savings. Even an extra $100 per mortgage payment can make a difference in amortization. Most fixed mortgages allow payments to be topped up by as much as 20%. One of my favorites is to have my variable rate clients set their payments at the 5 year fixed rate. That way they don't even notice the extra money going straight to the principle!!

Annual Lump Sums – This goes back to having savings habits. With strong savings, it enables the homeowner to use up some of those prepayment mortgage allowances. Most mortgages allow a lump sum payment of 15- 20% of the original mortgage balance annually. Take advantage and put large amounts when cash was available. For example, if you sell another asset (ie rental property), do well on some stocks (hopefully!!) or receive an inheritance.

Most of these items are common sense, but sometimes you need a reminder to create a new plan of action. Hope this helps!

Peter McKinnon
www.peterlmckinnon.com
peter_mckinnon@centum.ca

Tuesday, November 9, 2010

Mortgage Shopping Revealed!

Here are some recent stats on how consumers shop for mortgages:

Mortgage Shopping
1.96: Average number of mortgage quotes obtained by consumers.
42%: Percentage of mortgagorswho got just one quote.
I guess the idea of shopping around and saving money apparently doesn’t appeal to some folks.
6%: Number of borrowers who got no quotes.
This includes people who simply signed their renewal letter. What a painful thought.
10%: Share of mortgagors who got over three rate quotes.

Pre-payments
12%: Percentage of mortgagors who made a lump-sum pre-payment in the past year.
So many people want 20% pre-payment privileges and so few people use them.
16%: Percentage of mortgagors who increased their regular payments in the past year.
7%: Percentage of mortgagors who did both.

Rate Selection
66%: Chose fixed rates in the last 12 months.
29%: Chose variable/adjustable rate mortgages.
4%: Chose hybrid mortgages (part fixed / part variable).

Term Selection
66%: Took 5-year terms.
8%: Took terms over five years.
26%: Chose terms less than five years.

Professionals Consulted When Mortgage Shopping
70% spoke to a bank rep.
40% spoke to a mortgage broker.
Up five percentage points from last year.
22% spoke to a credit union.

Where People Went For A New Mortgage
40% went to a mortgage broker
39% went to a bank
21% went elsewhere


peter_mckinnon@centum.ca
http://www.peterlmckinnon.com/

Tuesday, October 5, 2010

Where are rates going??

Yields Close At A 17-Month Low

The 5-year government yield (which influences 5-year fixed mortgage rates) closed at 1.998% on Monday, its lowest level in 17 months.

Friday's all-important jobs reports will determine if bonds hold the 2.00% level for the short-term. Employment expectations are pretty low, so it wouldn’t take much for a positive surprise.
If yields do stay below 2%, we may see discounted 5-year rates inch a bit lower.

Lenders currently have plenty of spread (profit) in today’s typical 3.59% five-year fixed.
As usual, economic performance (both here and in the US) will influence bonds over the medium-term. BMO expects “Canadian bond yields to decline a bit further in the coming six months and then [turn higher] once the Bank of Canada resumes tightening.” (Bloomberg)
CIBC predicts “a pause in rates until May.”

Other notable facts:

Bloomberg recently surveyed 14 major economists and their consensus is for the next BoC rate hike to come in 2nd quarter 2011. (Businessweek)

Reuters says the markets are pricing in an 89% probability of no change at the BoC’s next meeting on October 19.

TD’s latest forecast calls for a 5.50% prime rate and a 4.35% five-year yield by year-end 2014.

That’s a 250 and 235 basis point increase respectively. Based on historical spreads, that suggests the following rates in four years:
5-year variable rates: 4.75%
5-year fixed rates: 5.60%.

Of course, I don’t have to remind most readers how big the margin of error is in long-range forecasts.

Peter McKinnon

www.peterlmckinnon.com

peter_mckinnon@centum.ca

Friday, August 20, 2010

Homebuyers Shouldn't Expect Hot Deals.....

From The Canadian Press Aug 15th, 2010


Sellers are facing more empty open houses and fewer bids on their homes, but experts say
buyers shouldn't expect to see a retreat from record-high home prices when July housing data is
released Monday.

Home sales have fallen 25 per cent since reaching a peak at the beginning of the year as
demand slows and more houses come onto the market. But it will take much longer for sky-high home prices to fall and the market to enter buyer-friendly territory. And history is on the side of the seller.

"Over time, if you were to look at the last 40 years, it's much more common to see sellers'
markets than buyers' markets," said Phil Soper, president of Royal LePage.
"It comes down to the different psychology that exists between buyers and sellers. Buyers are
very quick to adjust to a down market and sellers are very slow to adjust to a down market.
Sellers stubbornly hold onto their perception of what their home is worth, whereas buyers turn on a dime."

Soper expects to see sales decline dramatically from last July's near-record activity, but predicts
there will be little change in home prices when the Canadian Real Estate Association releases its
monthly sales figures Monday.

Seasonally-adjusted home sales fell 8.2 per cent in June from the month before and shrunk 19.7
per cent compared to June 2009. However, the average Canadian home price sat at $342,662
compared to $326,689 in 2009. "You would think prices would come down more rapidly given the drop in sales," said Sal Guatieri, senior economist with BMO Capital Markets.
Guatieri expects to see as much as a 35 per cent year-over-year drop in July home sales. He
projects monthly sales figures will be around 32,600 homes, which would represent the weakest
July since 2001. However, he says price increases will weaken just slightly, and only because
they were so high last year.

"It's only in a so-called buyers' market, where there are lot more listings on the market than sales, that buyers have some bargaining power and sellers are more willing to ease up on price, that we would see prices actually falling," he said.

But Mark Weisleder, a real estate author and lawyer, says real estate agents are beginning to
notice some discernable changes as the Canadian housing market cools off. Buyers are not as rushed to make an offer and are becoming more aggressive in negotiations, while sellers are beginning to accept less than asking price for homes as interest wanes.

"(Agents) are going to open houses, sitting there for three hours, and two people come in at the
most. Right now there doesn't seem to be that level of stampede mentality to go see a house,"
Weisleder said. "I do believe there is a disconnect between some of the data that people are throwing out there every day in the numbers, and slowly you're going to see prices come down."
Many buyers hurried to close in late 2009 and the first half of this year ahead of the new
harmonized sales tax in B.C. and Ontario, new mortgage requirements, and to take advantage of
record-low interest rates.

That pulled ahead sales that might otherwise have occurred in the second half of 2010,
increasing demand and leading to bidding wars in which buyers were willing to overpay to secure
a property. As home prices crept higher and consumers became more confident about an economic recovery, more sellers put their homes on the market, which increased inventory.
Now fewer buyers are shopping for homes just as more listings flood onto the market. That has
shifted the housing balance away from the seller-friendly market into neutral territory, but it's still shy of a buyers' market. Weisleder says the market isn't poised to enter buyers' territory any time soon, as historically low interest rates and a stable economy continue to make buying a Canadian home attractive.

"Because of the interest rates being so cheap to borrow money, prices may not fall too much
because people can still afford (to borrow) probably more than they should," he said.
"But it doesn't mean the house is worth that much," he said, adding that if rates go up it could be
catastrophic for homeowners who have taken on more debt than they will be able to afford.
Meanwhile, sellers have become accustomed to fetching high home prices and want to hang onto
their properties for as long as it takes to get those prices -- although that window has stretched
from a couple of weeks to a few months.

"No seller wants to jump the gun, so a lot of people are sitting on the fence and trying to hold on,"
Weisleder said. "A lot of people are very upset they didn't sell six months ago."

Tuesday, August 17, 2010

Bank Rate goes up, 5 years come down!!

What a roller coaster ride we've had this year......

3 months ago we were looking at bond yields over 3% which drove 5 year rates to 4.59% (thanks RBC!!) and the threat of Bank of Canada increases and higher rates to come.

Skip ahead, and we've had 2 BoC rate increases, bank prime now sitting at 2.75%, but corporate bond yields have crashed to the 2.15% allowing mortgage lenders to drop 5 year fixed rates. As of today my best is 3.69%!! with the majority hovering in the 3.89%- 4.09%.

On the real estate side, we're now told by the media that we have a buyer's market in Vancouver. Cheap money and a buyers' market? Who would have guessed?

Here are the current rates as of today: OAC and subject to change of course!!

5 year fixed Quick Close 3.69% must fund within 30 days of application
5 year fixed Standard 4.09%

3 year fixed 2.90%

5 year VRM prime - 0.65% 2.10%

3 year VRM prime - 0.75% 2.00%

peter_mckinnon@centum.ca
www.peterlmckinnon.com

cell 604-506-6789

Thursday, June 17, 2010

Interview with Odlum Brown Strategist on whats to come from interest rates

If you haven't had enough opinions offered or articles about what to expect in the coming months and years, here's some great points from Hank Cunningham, Fixed Income Strategist for Odlum Brown with over 40 years experience.

These excerpts are from Canadian Mortgage Trends http://www.canadianmortgagetrends.com/
an invaluable resource for what's going on in the mortgage world!

On long-term interest rates…

Hank: I don’t see much upward pressure on rates—not in the developed world. There’s no inflation to speak of. In fact, inflation continues to recede in most places if anything.

On the European debt crisis…

Hank: The sovereign debt issue is a major problem, but it’s confined to a part of the globe where it’s not going to have a material impact on the rest of the world. Certainly not from a growth point of view.

On long-term rates one year from now…

Hank: You’re going to see a flatter yield curve looking out a year. The spread between a 1-year mortgage and a 5-year mortgage is going to be a lot narrower. The yield curve is still steep right now. I think (mortgage) clients are still better off floating than they are fixing.

One of the other things you have to think about is the amount of debt coming due by governments. The U.S. has 40% of its debt maturing in the next three years. They don’t want higher inflation and interest rates.

On inflation risk…

Hank: Inflation is just under 2% in Canada. In the U.S. it's under 1% actually.

The 5-year rate might go up a bit, but the market will get anticipatory (and discount the Bank of Canada’s future rate increases)…and then, longer-term yields should come back down. People tend to underestimate the discounting nature of the market.

Note: I have removed a great technical analysis of effect bond yields to save some of you from getting too detailed, if you'd like to read more http://www.canadianmortgagetrends.com/canadian_mortgage_trends/2010/06/1-on-1-with-hank-cunningham.html

On economists’ forecasts of the Bank of Canada…

Hank: Economists generally do straight line forecasting. They don’t allow a lot of room for (unexpected) changes in the marketplace. Rate forecasts depend on your view of the world. My view of the world is one of growth with very little inflation. In that scenario there is no need for serious tightening. Market rates will rise if the demand for money rises. The market really acts independently from the Bank of Canada, as you know.

On where we go from here…

Hank: The BoC has already indicated that rates are going up. It (the hike in June) won’t be the last increase in the Bank rate. You’re going to see a flatter yield curve for sure.
The banks have been funding longer-term mortgages with short-term money. They pay nothing on savings and charge 4% for a mortgage. It’s been easy arbitrage. In 12-18 months that will be over.
In the meantime, people with mortgages will be “forced” to fix at the wrong time, right before rates come back down again. It happens, and it’s going to happen again. We’ve already had one false move in rates.

On going fixed or variable…

Hank: Money has been cheap. If people have fear of rates rising, you can fix right now and still have cheap money. I have no problem recommending that. But if you’re playing it close to the chest, I would stay floating right now.

Have a great weekend!

Peter McKinnon
http://www.peterlmckinnon.com/
peter_mckinnon@centum.ca